Trends and shipment forecast for 2H 2012 smartphone market

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Friday 10 August 2012
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Trends and shipment forecast for 2H 2012 smartphone market


Global smartphone shipments will top 630 million units in 2012, representing on-year growth of 35%, which is more moderate annual growth than seen in previous years. Smartphone shipments in 2010 and 2011 both enjoyed growth of more than 60%. Growth will decelerate in 2012 due to the high base, as well as a slowdown in consumer spending in Western Europe.

Annual smartphone shipments (m units)

In the second half of the year, global smartphone shipments will reach 344 million units and quarterly shipments during 2012 will register sequential growth through the last quarter of the year. The shipment ratio for the first and second halves of 2012 is estimated at 45:55.

Quarterly shipments during 2012 will manage on-year growth through the last quarter of the year. But the growth will slow at a gradual pace and likely decelerate to 22% in the fourth quarter.

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Table of contents
Introduction
    Major events affecting 2H12
       Table 1: Major events affecting the smartphone market in 2H12
       Emerging market shipments
       Chart 1: Emerging market shipments: China, India and Russia set to enjoy over 70% growth in 2012
       Qualcomm reference designs (QRD) in China
       Chart 2: Qualcomm promoting reference designs (QRD) in China
    New OS competition
       Chart 3: New OS competition - Android 4.1 vs. iOS 6 vs. WP 8
       Apple iOS ¡V dominance thanks to online stores
       Chart 4: Apple iOS ¡V dominance thanks to online stores
       Table 2: iOS 6 upgrade only for certain models, and support is diverse
       WP8 has shared core with Windows 8
       Chart 5: WP8 has shared core with Windows 8
       Chart 6: Windows Phone Marketplace hits 100,000 apps; Microsoft committed to strong ecosystem (k units)
       Chart 7: WP8 and WP7 market positioning
       Chart 8: Vendors targeting WP8 models
       Android 4.1 with enhanced features; early release of PDK for hardware developers
       Chart 9: Android 4.1 with enhanced features; early release of PDK for hardware developers
       Chart 10: Android OS - A more mature platform
       Chart 11: Android device activations per day (m units)
Global shipment forecast, 2012
    Chart 12: Annual smartphone shipments (m units)
    On-year growth to decelerate on 2H12
       Chart 13: Quarterly smartphone shipments, 2012 (m units)
    Shipments by vendor
       Samsung shipments to exceed 80 million in 2H12
       Chart 14: Samsung quarterly shipments, 2012 (m units)
       Apple to ship over 64 million iPhones in 2H; sees shipments peak in 4Q
       Chart 15: Apple iPhone quarterly shipments, 2012 (m units)
       Nokia weakness remains; 2H shipments barely to reach 20 million
       Chart 16: Nokia quarterly shipments, 2012 (m units)
       HTC 2012 shipments unlikely to hit 40 million units
       Chart 17: HTC quarterly shipments, 2012 (m units)
       Huawei 2012 shipments to almost top 35 million; high-end models to drive 2H sales
       Chart 18: Huawei quarterly shipments, 2012 (m units)
       Sony Mobile 2012 shipments likely to top 30 million
       Chart 19: Sony Mobile quarterly shipments, 2012 (m units)
       Next-generation BlackBerry delay to hurt 2012 shipments
       Chart 20: RIM BlackBerry quarterly shipments, 2012 (m units)
       ZTE shipments to approach 30 million; 2H to account for 60% of total
       Chart 21: ZTE quarterly shipments, 2012 (m units)
       LGE shipments likely to not hit 30 million
       Chart 22: LGE quarterly shipments, 2012 (m units)
       Motorola Mobility relying too much on US market; 4Q shipments to slip
       Chart 23: Motorola Mobility quarterly shipments, 2012 (m units)
    Top-10 brands in 2012
       Apple, Samsung shipments to hit milestone
       Chart 24: Top 10 vendors' annual smartphone shipments, 2010-2012 (m units)
       Top-10 brands in 2012: Five to see growth below industry average
       Chart 25: Top-10 brands annual shipment growth, 2012
       Top-5 brands market share: Samsung, Apple grow
       Chart 26: Top-5 brands' market share, 1Q11-4Q12
       Non Top-10 brands market share to top 10% in 2012
       Chart 27: Non Top-10 brands market share to top 10% in 2012
Market share forecasts for major operating systems
    Chart 28: Smartphone shipment share byoperating system, 2012
    Chart 29: Top 2 smartphone OS market share - Android and iOS, 1H12-2H12
    Chart 30: Market share of other OS platforms, 1H12-2H12
    Chart 31: Despite having its own platform, Samsung is even more reliant on Android than HTC
    Chart 32: Android is the mainstay of Huawei, ZTE and LTE's smartphone ranges, with each firm struggling to ship 1m WP handsets
    Chart 33: Nokia will ship just 13m WP handsets in 2012, with Symbian handsets outshipping WP models 2:1
    Vendors' share of Android
       Chart 34: Share of Androdid shipment by smartphone vendor, 2011-2012
    Vendors' share of WP
       Chart 35: Share of WP shipment by smartphone vendor, 2011-2012
    Market share trends for smartphone OS platforms
       Chart 36: Annual shipment growth rate trends for the major platforms, 2010-2012
       Chart 37: Smartphone operating system market share, 2009-2012

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